Lower alert level for Influenza A (H1N1)

I appreciate the decision taken by the Minister for Health in reducing the alert level for Influenza A. It is a bold decision to recognise that the threat is not serious, at least based on the information that is available now.

There is still a small risk that things can turn worse. When that happens, it will be appropriate to raise the alert level. I hope that this will come to pass, similar to other health concerns that have surfaced in recent years. 

We do have many big challenges to worry about,  such as restoring the health of the global economy.  We should not divert our attention to other matters that are not serious at this time.

Someone mentioned that Influenza A could be a black swan event. Really? There are other black swan events that could occur, such as an earthquake, terrorist attack or nuclear explosion.

Tan Kin Lian

Strong recovery in Singapore stockmarket

The Singapore stockmarket recovered by 50% from 1400 to 2100 (on the ST Index) over the past two months.

I did not buy any shares during this period, so I missed the rally. But I did not sell any shares either, during the decline from 2400 to 1400. So, they cancelled out.

This illustrates the importance of staying invested, for a long term investor. If one gets out of the market, when conditions are gloomy, one is likely to miss the rally. It is difficult to time the market. It is better to invest for the long term, and take a long term view.

Even the experts like Warren Buffet adviced investors to take a long term view and invest over a time frame of 10 years or longer.

Alaska

I will be in Alaska for the next three weeks. I may not be able to access my emails or the internet during part of this period.

Survey: Competition and Fair Trading

When we buy a car, we have a competitive market giving a large choice of car models. After buying the car, we have to approach the manufacturer for certain special parts, e.g. a replacement electronic key. The manufacturer does not allow other people to provide the key.

What is a fair price to pay for the car? Is it $30, $300 or $3,000? A non-electronic key can be made at a cost of $10. An electronic key is more expensive, but is $300 or $3,000 fair? If some manufacturer can make an electronic key for $150, should another menufacturer charge $300 or $1,000? 

Is there any party responsible to address complaints of consumers? 

Give your views in this survey.

Here are the survey results.

Are bonuses declared fairly?

Dear Mr Tan,
I have come to realise my folly in buying substantial insurance for myself and family ranging from endowments, whole life, etc. All along, I am told buying insurance is also saving for the future - how wrong I have been. Now I am aware that term life is still the best in terms of value. Now I have to consider how to handle the current policies that I have, especially those where I have to pay for "life".

Last month, I received a Bonus Notice that informed me of the reversionary bonus for 2008 (Endowment policy). I was told that "Due to current market conditions, your Projected Matuity Value at this point in time is revised to $71,491 from $87,786. This revision is done to reflect the reduction in value of the fund's assets."

I bought this policy in 1997. The yearly premium of $1,400 is deducted from my CPF OA account. At that time, the projected return is much more than if I leave the money in CPF. In Feb 2008 that I was told the projected maturity value is $87,786, with a yield to maturity of 4.41%.

In one year, I am now informed of this drastic reduction in just 2 sentences. What I cannot comprehend is the way life insurance company is able to decide unilaterally whatever value they want to reduce even when it affects the insurance buyers so much. In that case, the insurance buyers always lose, insurers always win.

In good times, the insurers make money, then in bad times, the insurance company still make money by just reducing bonuses on the insurance policies. There is no equity. Will you help me to understand why this is so?

REPLY 
The question that you asked has troubled me a lot in the past two years.

When I was in charge of NTUC Income, I made sure that the policyholders are given a fair deal. In bad years, the bonus are reduced, but in good years, the bonus are increased.

I now get the impression that many insurance companies are not practicing a fair approach in treating their policyholders.

I suggest that you should raise your question with MAS or with the Consumer Association of Singapore (CASE) and see if they are willing to take up this point as a matter of public interest or consumer protection.

SCMP: Minibond meetings

Minibonds meeting. About 50 investors who suffered losses after buying Lehman Brothers' minibonds protest at the Hong Kong Association of Banks in Central yesterday. They asked to meet association chairman Peter Wong Tung-shun, and their five-hour protest ended after the association agreed to arrange a meeting between the two sides on Thursday.

China Daily: are leaders retired?

"Public interest would not be adequately served by making known the names of the redundant leaders. It is more important to publicize where the dismissed leaders are placed.

 

Otherwise, there is every risk of the ejected excess being placed in positions elsewhere. The process calls for the utmost transparency.

 

Once a leader, always a leader until retirement, seems to have become a tacitly prevalent rule. As a result, quite a number of people do their best to get promoted not for doing a better job but for the benefits of the position.

 

Leadership entails not only benefits but also accountability. Unless the principle of acountability is enforced, just trimming the flab will neither raise efficiency nor make leaders discharge their duties in a responsible manner."